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blog från Gary Marcus

Why things will eventually fall apart

Gary Marcus
Jun 2, 2026 at 15:41
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Why things will eventually fall apart

Part I: The Math1. Everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as if it were some kind of winner take all competition like web search was, in which Google taking over 90% 2. But everybody is building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat.3. If there is no moat, nobody is going to take 90% of the market.4. With no clear winners, nobody can charge monopoly prices; instead, you get price wars and commodity pricing.5. Which means everybody will wind up overpaying compared to the modest profits they will be able to make in an intensely competitive regime. Am I missing something?Part II: The PsychologyNone of that would matter in the near term if people weren’t noticing. But they...

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