Misplaced panic over AI progress

1. Take the mostly horizontal part (yellow dots, actually attested); 2. Infer vertical.A couple days ago METR, a think tank that evaluates AI, dropped its latest graph, and the Twitterverse quickly became overwhelmed with panic, including a pile of tweets like these (and the one above):and All were triggered by METR’s latest edition of their famous “time horizon” graph:Even the usually sober forecaster Peter Wildeford worried that Mythos had “broken” the graph, meaning that we could no longer measure the limits of AI capabilities:Hold on. Let’s take a deep breath. (And let’s ignore the fact that “Deep learning is hitting a wall” was an essay about the limits of pure scaling, rather than...

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