Import AI 448: AI R&D; Bytedance’s CUDA-writing agent; on-device satellite AI

Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on arXiv and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this, please subscribe. Subscribe now AI progress is moving faster than even well regarded forecasters can guess:…Ajeya Cotra updates her timelines…“On Jan 14th, I made predictions about AI progress in 2026. My forecasts for software engineering capabilities already feel much too conservative,” writes Ajeya Cotra in a blog. Ajeya is a longtime AI thinker who has done some great work trying to predict timelines to powerful AI. In this post, she explains that AI systems are moving faster than she thought, given the recent METR results putting Opus 4.6 as having a time horizon of 12 hours (Ajeya had...

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